Two overlapping developments in the South Caucasus perfectly highlighted the military imbalance between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the fifth anniversary of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.
Azerbaijan publicly displayed its new Chinese-made HQ-9BE strategic air defense missile systems at a victory parade in Baku for the first time on Nov. 8. Days earlier, photos emerged indicating that Baku had acquired the system. The HQ-9BE could significantly reinforce Azerbaijan’s already formidable air defenses, which include the strategic Russian S-300 PMU-2 and advanced, medium-range Israeli Barak MX.
During the same parade, Azerbaijan showcased its JF-17C Block III fighter jets, which it acquired from Pakistan, for the first time. That acquisition marks a huge upgrade for its modest fighter fleet. Baku has ordered 40 of these advanced aircraft, which would dwarf the other two air forces in the South Caucasus and possibly even rival that of its southern neighbor, Iran.
As all of this was going on, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also mentioned the 2020 war, which represented an utterly devastating defeat and strategic setback for the Armenian military.
“SS stated that he couldn’t understand how it was possible to lose half of the air defense assets in the first hours of a 44-day war,” Pashinyan wrote on his official Facebook. “It’s not hard: the air defense system you left behind-not just individual assets, but the air defense system as a whole-was scrap metal.”
“Scrap metal in the truest sense of the word,” he added for emphasis.
During the 2020 war, Israeli-made Harop loitering munitions smashed into Armenia’s strategic S-300 systems, destroying them. Furthermore, the four Su-30SM fighter jets Armenia acquired from Russia the year before the war weren’t used, leading to accusations that they represented a white elephant for the Armenian military. Ironically, in the months leading up to the war, the Su-30SM acquisition was dubbed by critics as “overkill” on Yerevan’s part since those advanced air superiority fighters were considered more than Armenia needed for defense.
The critical lack of aerial cover enabled Azerbaijani drones to routinely hit the Armenian forces from the air, destroying over 200 of their main battle tanks.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s arms transfers database records Armenia receiving short-range Tor-M1 systems from Russia and second-hand Russian-made short-range Osa-AK systems from Jordan in 2019. Aside from that, Armenia had older second-hand, Russian-made 2K11 Krug medium-range systems acquired in the early 1990s and long-range S-300PS systems acquired in the late 2000s.
Azerbaijan also operates medium-range Russian Buk-1Ms acquired from Belarus in the early 2010s. Furthermore, while both countries have S-300s, the PMU-2 variant operated by Azerbaijan is considerably more sophisticated than the older, second-hand S-300PS used by Yerevan. The S-300PS is the oldest version of the S-300 still in service, while the S-300 PMU-2 is the newest and most advanced.
While Pashinyan may have been hyperbolic by writing off these systems as “scrap metal,” many of them were indeed antiquated and quite old compared to their equivalents in the arsenal of their oil-rich rival.
In the aftermath of the 2020 war, Armenia has significantly reduced its reliance on Russia for military hardware, which had previously been overwhelming. Since then, it has turned to France and India as alternative sources, buying artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, and, of course, air defenses.
Regarding air defense, France agreed to supply Armenia with advanced radars and short-range Mistral air defenses, suitable for point defense. Armenia became the first foreign buyer of India’s indigenous Akash-S1 medium-range air defense missile system, receiving its first batch in November 2024.
According to recent reports in Indian media, appearing mere days before Pashinyan slammed Armenia’s past “scrap metal” air defenses, Yerevan and New Delhi might soon sign memorandums of understanding worth a total of at least $3.5 billion. These memorandums cover the modernization of Armenia’s air defenses and the possible supply of the Akash-NG system, which boasts approximately twice the range of the Akash-S1.
Armenia recently denied reports that it will acquire an Indian variant of the Su-30, the Su-30MKI. However, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Yerevan ultimately acquires such fighter jets from New Delhi or enlists its services to modify or upgrade its modest fleet of four Flankers.
Paul Iddon
