The protests were initially inspired by Archbishop Bagrat Srbazan, who led an ecological and touristic march to Yerevan, calling on Armenian students and entrepreneurs to join the demonstrations. In response, some university rectors have locked their doors to prevent students from participating in what the protesters are calling a strike. Additionally, some Armenian law enforcement agencies have announced plans to suppress any disorder.
For clarity on the situation, Minval.az consulted political analyst Farhad Mammadov.
Mamedov interprets the university lockdowns and threats from law enforcement against unauthorized protests as an attempt by the Armenian authorities to use administrative resources to prevent widespread demonstrations.
Another question remains open: whether external forces are involved in the unrest in Armenia, and if so, which ones?
“The protest march in Armenia, meant to culminate in the capital on May 9 into a massive rally and ongoing mass protest, represents the maximum consolidation of pro-Russian forces in Armenia… they are gathering whatever they can,” stated M. Mamedov. “For Russia, it is crucial that Armenia does not cross major red lines: leaving the CSTO, the CIS, the EAEU, or bilateral treaties regarding military bases and border security with Turkey and Iran. However, [Armenian Prime Minister] Pashinyan is increasingly approaching these red lines. This is the last outburst of revanchist forces, as the inertia of processes shows acceleration, during which the peace agenda will only gain new achievements. The authority in Armenia is quite strong, with full carte blanche from the West to use force and suppress illegal activities.”
Regarding the possibility of a coup, Mamedov believes it could be initiated by civilians. For instance, if they manage to gather enough parliamentary signatures to start an impeachment process, they would still lack a majority in the parliament.
“But if they do this, they must gather enough signatures and propose an alternative candidate for prime minister. The decision will then rest with the parliament. Again, if, as in 2018, the protesters surround the parliament and force the deputies to vote as they wish, as Pashinyan did in 2018 when the Republican Party members voted for his candidacy, they might succeed. If I recall correctly, those events took place in May 2018,” Mamedov noted.
However, according to the analyst, this is just one possible scenario. Another scenario, involving the military and law enforcement’s participation, seems unlikely.
Naturally, the ongoing events in Yerevan raise questions about the future of the peace agreements that need to be reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan. What would official Baku do if the power in Armenia changed and the revanchists came to power? Would this mean that the negotiation process would be frozen? Answering these questions, M. Mamedov reported that the peace process between the states would be frozen.
“How legitimate will the power in Armenia be with whom negotiations must be conducted? Even if everything is within the framework of the Armenian Constitution, there will be a pause in the negotiation process, as was the case in 2018. Then, negotiations did not take place in the spring and summer and resumed only in September when Azerbaijan realized that Pashinyan had carried out a legitimate procedure for coming to power,” the political analyst remarked.
