Macron lets Pashinyan loose: Negotiations on the verge of collapse again

Pashinyan, who in the talks with Ilham Aliyev and Olaf Scholz only a few days ago had pledged his readiness to work on a peace treaty, this time called peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia “unthinkable” after the “events on the border”, and, anyway, those evil Azerbaijanis call Armenia “Western Azerbaijan”.

He also spoke about Armenia’s ties with Russia. Calling his relationship with Putin “institutional,” Pashinyan nevertheless insisted that the issue of extending the stay of the Russian military base in Armenia “is not on the agenda” and that the country’s participation in the CSTO is “frozen”. The CSTO itself, however, has already commented that no request from Armenia to suspend its membership in the organization has been received.

At the same time, at the quite recent meeting with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, Nikol Pashinyan assured them that he was eager to work on a peace treaty. As their boss was visiting Paris, members of his team were even saying something about preparation of the next meetings at the level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. So how does this fit in with Pashinyan’s statement that “peace is unthinkable”?

Especially with the remark that it is “unthinkable” after the events on the border? The aggravation on the border started with an ARMENIAN sniper shooting at an Azerbaijani border guard. Did they at 26 Baghramyan really think they could get away with it? If they did, they do not know Azerbaijan too well.

It is unlikely that the promised air defense radars and binoculars encouraged Nikol Pashinyan so much. Apparently, Emmanuel Macron did give Pashinyan some “guarantees”, which made the Armenian PM go ballistic. Not only in words: while Pashinyan was in Paris and French Defense Minister Lecornu was in Yerevan, the Armenian military once again opened fire on Azerbaijani positions. Now France is also responsible for the new round of tension after overexciting Armenia. It does not matter whether Paris knew the extent of Armenia’s irresponsibility—any self-respecting country should understand to whom it makes promises and supplies weapons. Incompetence of intelligence services is definitely not an excuse here.

One can only wonder whether Nikol Pashinyan has learned the lessons of Georgia and Ukraine, and whether he has considered if French guarantees should be trusted at all. The solemn meeting in the Élysée Palace, the reburial of Misak Manushyan’s remains in the Pantheon in Paris to the tune of Armenian duduk—all this made an indelible impression on the Armenian Prime Minister. So much so that he went completely off the rails. Clearly, his statement is a serious blow to the positive “progress” achieved in Munich at the meeting between Aliyev, Scholz and Pashinyan. Moreover, Armenia is disrupting the peace process again at the behest of Emmanuel Macron, who is not very keen on the stabilization of the situation in the South Caucasus. Not to mention that Macron is jealous of Scholz’s involvement. So, he chose to act stealthily, unleashing Pashinyan.

Nikol Pashinyan’s jabs at Russia should also be viewed in the same context. It is not just that the Armenian PM is deeply resentful of Russia for not going to war over Armenian territorial aspirations. Rather, one can assume that the “guarantees” Macron promised Pashinyan were to be truly “enabled” after the final separation of Armenia and Russia. As a result, Pashinyan went back to his old game: talking about suspension of activities in the CSTO, promising not to extend the stay of the Russian military base in Gyumri (which is there at least until 2044, and who knows how the situation will change until then), and belated indignation over the Russians detaining (in Pashinyan’s words, “abducting”) their national accused of desertion on the territory of Armenia. There was even a leak in the media claiming that Russian border guards would soon leave Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport.

Moreover, the expert community is also talking about the plans of Yerevan and Paris to replace the Russian base in Armenia with a French one. At least, this is the information available to Iranian intelligence, and Iran is already visibly concerned about it.

This is where we need to draw the red lines of our own. Azerbaijan will continue to respond harshly to any provocation on the border and any attempt to attack its territory and its soldiers. As for the geopolitical games of Nikol Pashinyan, Emmanuel Macron and Co., our country has never sought to get involved in other people’s squabbles, and it will not act as a tool of someone’s team now. Whether Pashinyan is trying to betray his traditional allies in Moscow and Tehran and throw himself into the arms of Paris, or whether, on the contrary, he is deceiving Paris to side with Russia and Iran again at a crucial moment, this is for Paris, Moscow and Tehran to figure out.

Meanwhile, we stock up on popcorn. And keep our gunpowder dry.