This is, essentially, the first public statement and accusation by Armenia against Russia. Given that Pashinyan also made unflattering remarks about the CSTO, which, according to him, failed to fulfill its obligations to Armenia in 2020, it can be argued that relations between the two countries are in decline. Is this really the case?
Minval.az asked former Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Tofig Zulfugarov to comment on the situation.
Will Armenia leave the CSTO after all?
I do not know about the CSTO, but I would like to note first of all that they have been talking about cutting ties with Russia for three years now, and yet their exports with Russia tripled in 2023. That is, Armenia has essentially become a tool for certain business circles in Russia to circumvent sanctions. Besides, the Armenian side de facto insisted that Russian border guards be posted on the border with Azerbaijan, although according to the 1992 agreement, Russian border troops of the FSB were supposed to be posted only on the external borders of the CIS. That is, they say a lot, but in reality they do otherwise. So, I believe here we see another attempt of Armenia to sit on two chairs and receive support and security guarantees from Russia and support and assistance from the West at the same time. This is not a new attempt, they have always played this game. They swing back and forth like a pendulum.
But Pashinyan has never said before that Moscow is trying to overthrow the government in Armenia.
Again, this is a kind of game intended for the domestic audience. I would like to recall in this regard that when the so-called conspiracy of generals took place in Armenia in 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry called on the military in Armenia to act within the Constitution. Thus, the attempt to oust Pashinyan in Armenia was effectively thwarted. This is why I am saying once again that the Pashinyan administration is playing a complicated game, trying to sit on two chairs. The Russian leadership, despite some criticism from Pashinyan’s propagandists, as far as I understand, has quite constructive relations with the Armenian leadership and Pashinyan himself. The system that the Armenian leadership has created to circumvent sanctions shows that cooperation there is being maintained at a high level.
France has supplied Armenia with radar stations that can scan the territory up to 250 km. The French Defense Ministry also said that it would supply Armenia with short, medium and long-range missiles, which means that missiles up to 500 km and above can cover the entire territory of Azerbaijan…
This is impossible because France cannot export missiles with a range of over 300 km. France has international obligations to prevent the export of missile technology. Then, if we look back at the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, we will see that Armenia officially made territorial claims against Azerbaijan, carried out armed aggression and ethnic cleansing on the territory of our country, and Azerbaijan, exercising its right to repel the aggressor according to the UN Charter, liberated its territory from the Armenian armed forces.
However, at the level of fundamental legal documents, Armenia has not renounced its territorial claims. In the political sphere, we see that Armenia is avoiding signing a peace treaty in every possible way. Therefore, the probability of Armenia continuing its attempts of armed aggression against Azerbaijan and annexation of its territories is very high. The revanchist statements we hear are being monitored very thoroughly in Baku, and as President Ilham Aliyev said, if the slightest threat to our security arises, we will be ready to destroy all sources of threats. The French military leadership can say whatever they want. Should Azerbaijan feel any threat from the state that has carried out armed aggression against it and continues to officially have territorial claims against us, the country has the right, taking into account this threat, to eliminate the sources of threats and destroy any weapon systems on the territory of Armenia that pose a danger to Azerbaijan.
So, you do not rule out that as France pumps Armenia with its weapons, Armenia is basically being provoked to start a new war with Azerbaijan?
What do you mean, “provoked”? The aggression never stopped. The armed phase of this aggression is now as follows: Azerbaijan has expelled the aggressor from its territory and the process is at the stage of clarifying the borders.
The war is not over then?
The war is not over. We are in a de facto state of war. There is no peace treaty. There is no ceasefire regime or any agreements either. Armenia does not want to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. It does not want to give up its claims to Azerbaijani territory. It keeps delaying the signing of the peace agreement in every possible way. It is not willing to pay reparations for the damage caused, etc. So the aggression continues and the war is not over yet. And suddenly someone from France appears and says that they will supply weapons. And we will monitor very closely what kind of weapons are being supplied and where they are being deployed, and if conditions are created that jeopardize the security of our citizens, then as a preemptive strike we can eliminate all the sources of threats and prevent repeated aggression against Azerbaijan, the very aggression, which, by the way, is being openly discussed by revanchist circles.
Don’t you think Russia and Iran should openly say their word by now, when the West is openly invading…
You know, this kind of mentality that somebody has to say something for us is wrong. We are at a different stage of awareness of our statehood. What do we care what Iran or Russia says? We are military allies with Türkiye. If there is any threat to our citizens, Azerbaijan can strike as it did before, because Armenia has not given up its claims to our territories. They withdrew the remnants of their armed forces from our territory only 4-5 months ago. What is there to talk about? Are we going to wait for Iran’s or Russia’s reaction?
Could we say that Russia has as good as lost Armenia?
No. I am not prepared to assess the situation from the point of view of “who lost who”. My analysis is based on the system of Azerbaijan’s interests first and foremost. And questions about how Iran will look at the presence of French weapons are of secondary importance. We are a state that has exercised its right to fight back the aggressor and we intend to ensure our security together with our ally Türkiye.
Can Pashinyan be called a revanchist?
Of course. He is in power on the basis of the Constitution, from which he does not want to remove the clauses on territorial claims against Azerbaijan and Türkiye. Who else is he, then? He says one thing today and another thing tomorrow. He dances in Shusha and says that Karabakh is Azerbaijan. Who cares what he says? If he goes to Paris, he says one thing, if he goes to Moscow, he says something else. Everything should be assessed on the basis of facts. And the facts are that 4-5 months ago, in September 2023, they removed the leftovers of their expeditionary corps from our territory, and the rest is just talk.
Rauf Nasirov
Translated from Minval.az
