Relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union, previously complicated by the Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict, have begun to stabilize thanks to the regional landscape forged by Baku. Cooperation now spans energy, transport, economic, and political spheres. At present, the EU and Azerbaijan are negotiating a new comprehensive agreement aimed at deepening ties across multiple areas. Alongside the core sector of energy, the development of regional transport corridors — including those running through Azerbaijan — has become a major direction of joint activity. These relations are reinforced by regular meetings at various levels, successful security dialogues, and cooperation in other fields.
Although most of the new agreement’s text has been coordinated, some issues are still under negotiation. Political analyst and Member of the Milli Majlis Rasim Musabayov spoke with Minval Politika about the key indicators of the clear warming in EU–Azerbaijan relations and the questions that remain unresolved in the talks on the new comprehensive agreement.
“I believe the main change is not in the relations themselves but in objective geopolitics. All the attempts by the European Parliament and the European Commission to impose their own frameworks for the Armenian–Azerbaijani settlement failed because Azerbaijan resolved all issues independently. The Armenian–Azerbaijani question slipped out of the control of both Moscow and Brussels,” he said.
He recalled that the decisive step occurred in Washington: “It was there that the declaration laying the foundations for the normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan was signed, along with the initialing of the peace treaty.”
“And the European Parliament — which tirelessly adopted resolutions against Azerbaijan — has calmed down and shifted its attention to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That is now the main concern of European policymakers and the public. The Armenian–Azerbaijani issue has effectively disappeared from the agenda,” the expert noted.
Discussing the improving EU–Azerbaijan dialogue, the MP highlighted the visit of EU High Representative Kaja Kallas to Azerbaijan and the positive meetings President Ilham Aliyev held within the European Political Community summit: “So the dynamic is positive, and there are prospects for placing EU–Azerbaijan relations on a new contractual and legal foundation.”
“As is known, Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan already have such agreements. The EU is also working on a pact with Uzbekistan, while our document got stuck with the diplomats. Given the atmosphere in the European Parliament and in many pro-Armenian national parliaments — in France, Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg — it was unrealistic to expect that this agreement would pass ratification. Therefore, work on the document was halted,” Musabayov explained.
Overall, however, he believes no unsolvable issues remain: “If the document is finalized in the near term, the contractual and legal basis of Azerbaijan–EU cooperation can finally be established.”
Regarding the improving ties, the MP emphasized that it was precisely the changing realities that compelled the EU to adjust its position: Azerbaijan has been pursuing its policies based on its own resources, consistently and decisively, amid Russia’s increasingly alarming aggression against Ukraine.
“All of this forces European politicians to move away from ideological preferences and talk about ‘European values’ and instead embrace realpolitik, where what matters is what states can offer one another,” he said.
“And in that sense, Azerbaijan has what Europe needs: energy resources that allow the EU to diversify its hydrocarbon market; transport routes; a solvent and growing domestic market; and a geopolitical position central to both the South Caucasus and wider relations in the Middle East and Central Asia. All of this pushes European politicians to rethink their approach to Azerbaijan,” Musabayov argued.
Commenting on the draft agreement, he identified several issues still under discussion: “These concern aviation and the regulation of air transport. A serious obstacle in EU–Azerbaijan relations is that Azerbaijan has not yet joined the World Trade Organization. I think there are now some prospects on that front as well.”
“The political component — according to which the EU would try to impose certain demands on Azerbaijan in the context of the Armenian–Azerbaijani settlement — has been removed. Although during ratification, I do not rule out that some parliaments will raise the usual outcries about supposed ‘prisoners of war’ on trial in Baku or shed crocodile tears over the fate of Karabakh Armenians. But I believe reality will steadily prevail, including in the legal framework of Baku–Brussels relations,” he said.
Musabayov stressed that Azerbaijan prioritizes bilateral relations: “Around ten EU member states have strategic partnership agreements with Azerbaijan. Some of these, such as those with the Baltic republics, are more declarative, but with Balkan states and Italy, Azerbaijan’s ties truly have the character of strategic partnerships. With Hungary, relations are rising to an almost allied level. So Azerbaijan is pragmatically building relations on a bilateral basis first, although multilateral ties through Brussels and the European Commission also remain within the focus of Azerbaijani diplomacy.”
He also addressed the presence of the EU monitoring mission on the Armenian–Azerbaijani border: “This will be resolved in the bilateral treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which has been initialed and will enter into force after signing and ratification.”
“That document explicitly states that there must be no third-country forces on the Armenian–Azerbaijani border. Accordingly, the EU mission will be removed from the border. In what form and where they may retain representatives inside Armenia — that is a matter between Yerevan and Brussels,” Musabayov concluded.
