Azerbaijan continues to expand its cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance and is now a participant in an important NATO project—the “Centre of Excellence for Maritime Security” (MARSEC COE). The main objective of this center is to involve member states in ensuring maritime security while encouraging other countries to fulfill their obligations in this area.
It is no longer a secret—nor news—that the Azerbaijani armed forces are aligning their standards with those of the Turkish military, which means, by extension, NATO. Understandably, the Azerbaijani public’s focus has so far been mainly on ground forces. However, just as significant transformations have been taking place in the Navy. In fact, many NATO programs are specifically implemented at sea. These include training courses, assessments of specific units—such as deck groups—to ensure they meet NATO standards, and much more.
However, Azerbaijan’s accession to MARSEC COE takes its maritime cooperation with NATO to an entirely new level. This is particularly relevant given that maritime security may soon become one of NATO’s key priorities. A series of incidents in the Baltic Sea, where critical infrastructure—ranging from pipelines to communication cables—has been damaged, serves as a stark reminder of the challenges ahead.
What Role Can Azerbaijan Play?
Azerbaijan, after all, has no direct access to the open sea. The Caspian Sea is an enclosed body of water, and the only practical way to reach the world’s oceans is through Russia’s Volga-Don Canal. This makes it unlikely that Azerbaijani naval vessels will appear in the Baltic or even the Black Sea anytime soon—unless, of course, they are transported overland to Georgian Black Sea ports. While theoretically possible, such a maneuver would be limited to small boats rather than larger, more significant naval assets.
A different story, however, applies to Azerbaijan’s naval special forces—the so-called “naval seals.” The Azerbaijani Navy’s special forces have participated in numerous joint exercises, particularly in Turkey, which operates within NATO’s zone of responsibility and follows NATO standards.
Maritime Security and the Caspian
Most importantly, Azerbaijan’s membership in MARSEC COE enhances the security of Azerbaijani maritime transport—a highly relevant issue, especially given today’s global geopolitical landscape. Maritime shipping faces serious threats in various regions, from the South China Sea to the Horn of Africa—not to mention the Black Sea, where Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has made navigation increasingly perilous.
At the very least, Azerbaijan’s participation in MARSEC COE could facilitate the adoption of new maritime security standards within the Caspian Sea itself. This is particularly crucial as the strategic importance of Caspian logistics continues to grow. However, political tensions in the region are also on the rise. The Caspian has already been used as a launchpad for Russian Kalibr cruise missile strikes on Syria and Ukraine, as well as a route for transferring Iranian Shahed drones to Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones have targeted the Caspian Flotilla’s base in Dagestan.
The Bigger Geopolitical Picture
It is tempting to believe that all of this will soon change—that Donald Trump’s diplomacy will take effect and the war in Ukraine will end. However, for now, the new U.S. administration’s approach has not significantly influenced the intensity of fighting on the Ukrainian front. Whether it will in the near future—whether a ceasefire can be achieved and, if so, how sustainable it will be—remains uncertain. Moreover, the initial assessments suggest that Russia and Ukraine’s positions are too far apart for a quick agreement, and the assumption that “Kyiv cannot hold out without Western aid” may not prove accurate, especially given Europe’s commitment to supporting Ukraine.
Meanwhile, tensions surrounding Iran are escalating.
In addition, political shifts are taking place in Central Asia, where countries are seeking economic and logistical diversification and focusing on the Trans-Caspian communication hub as a means of reaching European markets while bypassing Russian territory. Ensuring the security of these routes is crucial. While no official agreements guaranteeing NATO’s direct involvement in securing them exist yet—and are unlikely to be signed in the near future—Azerbaijan’s participation in MARSEC COE significantly broadens its strategic options.
While this does not mean “NATO troops in the Caspian Sea” just yet, it does signal a form of political presence for the Alliance. Meanwhile, NATO member states have had an economic presence in the Caspian region since 1994, when the Contract of the Century was signed in Baku.
Nurani
