France is restoring its relations with Azerbaijan. The first “signal” came back in mid-October, when President Ilham Aliyev, receiving the credentials of France’s new ambassador Sophie Lagoute, emphasized that Baku and Paris had overcome their differences in bilateral relations. The head of state also recalled his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Copenhagen in early October, noting that as a result of that conversation, “the issues that caused disagreements between the two countries are now in the past,” marking the beginning of a new period in Azerbaijan–France relations.
And now comes the follow-up. French presidential adviser Bertrand Buchwalter and Foreign Ministry representative Brice Roquefeuil have arrived in Azerbaijan to discuss bilateral relations and regional matters with Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, and Presidential Representative Elchin Amirbayov.
It is too early to predict the outcome of these talks, but there is no doubt that Paris and Baku are moving toward rapprochement and “breaking the ice.” It is also telling that both the deterioration of relations and the current thaw have taken place at the initiative of Paris.
It is worth recalling both the “bigger picture” and the “details.” The crisis in bilateral relations, which Baku and Paris are now turning the page on, undoubtedly has Armenian roots. France is home to a large, well-organized, and highly influential Armenian community whose votes French politicians are reluctant to lose. Yet this did not prevent Paris from maintaining constructive relations with Baku — at least until Emmanuel Macron entered the Élysée Palace. The two sides regularly exchanged high-level visits; France was among the first to open an embassy in Azerbaijan. French company Total held stakes in oil and gas contracts; Azerbaijan purchased Airbuses, ATRs, and other French aircraft; Azerbaijani satellites were launched into orbit by French rockets from a French spaceport; French radar systems were installed in Azerbaijani airports. Observers even recall that, at one of the military parades before autumn 2020, Azerbaijani pilots were wearing French flight helmets.
Everything changed during the 44-day war, when statements from Paris began to sound like “we will not allow Azerbaijan to regain Karabakh by force.” Territorial integrity and state sovereignty are “red lines” for our country, and the response from Baku was accordingly firm — both in words and in deeds. Bilateral relations were effectively frozen.
Now, however, the ice is melting. It is tempting to link this thaw in Baku–Paris relations to the ongoing negotiations in Washington and the launch of a comprehensive peace process. Baku and Yerevan have already initialed a peace treaty and are preparing to sign it. Yet there is clearly another dimension to the story. The “teacherly reprimands” from Paris simply failed to produce the effect the French leadership expected. Azerbaijan remained steadfast in its position. Moreover, the country not only achieved a brilliant and unprecedented military victory but also secured it through diplomatic means. In such a situation, it was no longer possible for Paris to cling to its earlier rhetoric of “we won’t allow it, we won’t permit it, you should have asked us first.” And finally, however valuable the Armenian vote may be in electoral terms, economics cannot be ignored.
Paris clearly wishes to return to the times when Azerbaijani satellites were launched by French rockets, when the sale of two corvettes to Azerbaijan was under discussion, and when negotiations on coastal defense missile systems were underway. In other words, today the French government recognizes the new realities. Azerbaijan has triumphed in Karabakh, and Paris no longer seeks to alter that outcome. France is rebuilding its relations with our country based on new realities and new conditions. The full impact of Azerbaijan’s victory in Karabakh is only now beginning to unfold.
Nurani
Translated from minval.az
