On March 18th, the official visit of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Azerbaijan concluded. During his visit, he was received by President Ilham Aliyev, and the parties conducted productive discussions on a range of issues, including direct cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance, the current state of the peace process with Armenia, and the importance of holding the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan. Minval.az asked political analyst Rasim Musabayov to comment on the outcomes of this meeting and the purpose of Stoltenberg’s visit to Azerbaijan.
According to the expert, the purpose of the NATO head’s visit was to inform about the plans of this structure in relation to the war being waged by Russia and Iran against the collective West.
“It is likely that this war will be long and will consist of both ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ phases. I believe Stoltenberg recommended increasing expenses and efforts to strengthen defense capabilities, and also made some suggestions and warnings,” said the expert.
Specifically, according to the political analyst, Stoltenberg is touring the South Caucasus with his package of advice for each country in the region. For example, Baku was recommended to accelerate the process of signing a peace treaty and normalizing interstate relations, and he will say the same in Yerevan.
“Azerbaijan, unlike Armenia and Georgia, I believe, is in a more favorable position because it has strong allied relations with Turkey, a leading NATO member country. And to Armenia, which is still Russia’s ally and flirting with Iran, Stoltenberg likely recommended caution towards Russia. Meanwhile, he would advise Georgia, which in recent years has reduced expenditures and attention to strengthening defense capabilities, to increase them, as this country is most vulnerable to military pressure from the north,” noted the expert.
In this context, R. Musabayov assumed that the South Caucasus countries should not be expected to take any actions against Russia and NATO is unlikely to push for such ventures. NATO is probably not ready to carry out military supplies or assist in troop training now. All efforts and resources are directed to assist Ukraine and Israel. And NATO countries themselves need to replenish stocks of weapons and ammunition and urgently build up military muscle.
“The countries of the region will have to rely on their own capabilities and conduct a cautious foreign policy in the near future,” said R. Musabayov.
Asked whether the visit could be considered as a groundwork in the South Caucasus for provoking a new war against Russia in the future, the political analyst said: “There’s no need to capture Armenia. Russia is already present in this country through military bases in Gyumri and Erebuni, plus Russian border guards and agents all over Armenia. Moscow is not satisfied with Pashinyan, but there is no need for a military invasion to remove him.”
It was also noted that Georgia is under the patronage of Ivanishvili, and this fact is quite satisfactory for Moscow. As for militarily strong Azerbaijan, “as you climb on, so you will have to get down.” Plus, there’s the Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance.
At the same time, R. Musabayov noted that in addition to direct military actions, there are subversive operations, political-diplomatic blackmail, information pressure, bribery, and more from the arsenal of covert wars. Despite all this, Azerbaijan cannot afford to relax, as the old Roman formula “if you want peace, prepare for war” is as relevant for our region and directly for our country as ever.
