As reported by the Financial Times, the Caspian Sea, the world’s largest enclosed body of water, is on the brink of reaching a record low in water levels. According to an Azerbaijani ecological official, this phenomenon is primarily driven by climate change and has long-lasting impacts on the region.
The Caspian Sea, located near the site of the UN COP29 climate summit in Baku, has been experiencing an unprecedented drop in water levels for nearly three decades. According to Faig Mutallimov, head of the environmental policy department at Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Ecology, water levels have been decreasing since 1995, with the decline becoming particularly pronounced in recent years. By the end of 2024, levels may reach or even surpass the previous record low set in the late 1970s.
The primary cause is climate change: rising global temperatures accelerate water evaporation, while shifting precipitation patterns and wind flows significantly disrupt the sea’s water balance. Additionally, reduced runoff from the Volga River—the Caspian Sea’s main tributary—has further exacerbated the situation.
The decline in water levels poses a serious threat to many coastal cities and infrastructure. Mutallimov emphasized that ports and oil platforms are facing substantial challenges. Ships are forced to carry lighter loads due to decreased water depths, and the operation of oil rigs has become increasingly difficult.
Rick Fawn, senior lecturer in international relations at the University of St Andrews, highlighted concerns over the lack of consensus on the scale of potential sea level reductions. This uncertainty complicates infrastructure development and strategic planning in the region.
The drop in water levels is wreaking havoc on the Caspian Sea’s ecosystem. The sea is home to wild sturgeon, prized for their caviar, and endemic Caspian seals. Both species face significant threats, jeopardizing the region’s ecological balance.
Speaking at COP29, Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Programme, noted that the Caspian Sea is suffering from a “triple crisis”: climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. This also poses a human crisis, affecting food security, livelihoods, and regional stability.
In 2024, a working group comprising government officials, scientists, and experts was established to address the issue of declining water levels. Regional stakeholders, including Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, are seeking collaborative solutions to the crisis. However, countries like Azerbaijan, whose economy relies on oil and gas exports for 90% of its revenue, are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, which drive climate change.
The Caspian Sea’s plight underscores the urgent need for coordinated global and regional action to mitigate climate change and preserve vital ecosystems.
