On Oct. 21, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a decision that could reshape the balance of power in one of the world’s most strategically vital crossroads: the region connecting Europe, Asia and the Middle East. During a visit to Kazakhstan, Mr. Aliyev overturned long-standing restrictions on trade and transit across Azerbaijan’s border with Armenia.
That same day, a shipment of Kazakh wheat passed through Azerbaijan into Armenia. It was a small but historic act that symbolized something once thought impossible: reconciliation after decades of war.
This move reinforces the Trump-brokered peace accords signed in August. It strengthens the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a trade and transport corridor linking Azerbaijan to its landlocked Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and beyond. The TRIPP is more than infrastructure. It’s a geopolitical lifeline connecting pro-Western partners and giving the United States long-term influence in a region long dominated by Russia and Iran.
By normalizing commercial ties with Armenia, Mr. Aliyev has also defused one of the region’s most significant flash points: fears that Azerbaijan might forcibly seize a corridor through Armenia’s Syunik region. That means no war, no instability and the foundations of the kind of durable peace that President Trump promised but Washington’s foreign policy establishment never believed could come to pass.
Mr. Aliyev’s actions aren’t just about trade; they are also part of a broader strategy of realignment. Azerbaijan is signaling that its future lies with the United States and its allies, not with Moscow or Tehran. The results are already visible. On Oct. 13, at the invitation of Mr. Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, Mr. Aliyev attended the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, which brought an end to the Israel-Hamas war. Baku’s participation highlighted Azerbaijan’s growing role as a bridge between Muslim nations and the West and as a quiet but capable partner in Middle East diplomacy. It’s a tangible result of the Trump approach to peace through strength.
Azerbaijan is also one of Israel’s most valuable partners in the Muslim world and possesses the potential to become part of the Abraham Accords. The two nations have had three decades of deep defense cooperation and intelligence sharing. Israel has supplied military technology to Baku, while Azerbaijan has provided intelligence support to Israel. Moreover, despite being a Muslim-majority nation, Azerbaijan has consistently rejected extremism, proving that a country can embrace its Islamic identity and still be a trusted ally of the West. It’s precisely the kind of model Washington should reward.
That’s why the Trump administration’s restoration of Section 907 of the 1992 Freedom Support Act waiver was necessary and strategic. Section 907 restricts U.S. military aid to Azerbaijan, an outdated relic of post-Cold War politics that no longer reflects reality. After 9/11, the George W. Bush administration suspended Section 907 when Baku stepped forward to help the United States combat terrorism. In 2023, Congress, under pressure from the Armenian lobby, reinstated the restriction after renewed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh. That reversal punished a loyal U.S. partner while rewarding Russian and Iranian influence.
Mr. Trump’s reinstatement of the waiver in August was a step in the right direction, but the 907 needs to be abolished altogether through legislative action by Congress. This move would open the door to permanent, deeper cooperation between Washington and Baku — in defense, counterterrorism and energy security — and signal to adversaries that America stands with nations that choose peace and partnership.
Critics, including the Armenian National Committee of America, claim Azerbaijan remains too close to Moscow. The evidence tells a different story. After a Russian missile strike killed 38 Azerbaijani civilians aboard an airliner last Christmas, Baku expelled Russian officials, condemned the attack and drew closer to Washington. Relations between Mr. Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin had hit their lowest point in years. The situation ultimately led to a rare personal apology from Mr. Putin himself. That tells you who’s losing influence in the region, and it’s not the United States.
Mr. Aliyev has also given U.S. companies preferential access to TRIPP-linked projects in the Zangezur Corridor, another strategic setback for Russia and Iran. Tehran views Azerbaijan’s growing ties with the U.S. and Israel as a direct challenge to its regional ambitions. Meanwhile, Beijing, through its Belt and Road Initiative, is eager to exploit any sign of American hesitation. Strengthening ties with Baku blocks China and Iran from filling the vacuum.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. The South Caucasus is the gateway conjoining Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. The world authority that controls this strategic corridor dictates access to key global assets, including international trade networks, energy infrastructure and security lanes. This geopolitical reality was understood by Mr. Trump, who successfully brokered a peace deal that prioritized stability and regional economic integration over continued hostility. This is a foreign policy strategy built on results, not rhetoric.
Mr. Trump’s “America First” strategy rewards true allies and deters adversaries, securing U.S. interests while fostering real peace. Azerbaijan has chosen partnership over conflict, and if the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity succeeds, it will anchor America’s influence in a critical region while weakening Russia, Iran and China. Mr. Trump’s peace through strength is no slogan. It’s working.
Hollie McKay is a war correspondent and foreign policy analyst who has spent two decades reporting from conflict zones. She currently serves as research director for GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk and intelligence firm.
