Aze.Media
Who we are
Donate
No Result
View All Result
  • Opinion
  • News
    • Economy
    • Energy
    • Ecology
  • Culture
  • Diaspora
  • Interview
  • Science
  • Logistics-Transport
  • Gender
  • History
  • Defense
  • Karabakh
  • Home page
  • Culture
  • Defense
  • Diaspora
  • Gender
  • History
  • Interview
  • Karabakh
  • Logistics-Transport
  • News
    • Ecology
    • Economy
    • Energy
  • Opinion
  • Science
No Result
View All Result
Aze.Media
Home Opinion

Turkish-Armenian normalisation gathers pace as Ankara expects gradual success

Encouraged by Prime Minister Pashinyan's reelection, Turkish officials aim to normalise with Yerevan in a step-by-step programme that would open borders and establish complete full relations.

Author: AzeMedia
December 24, 2021
in Opinion
Reading Time: 4 mins read
ermenistan-P6PO_cover

Though it may seem strange today, relations between Turkey and Armenia were not at first hostile. When Armenia declared its independence in 1991 from the Soviet Union, Turkey was the first nation to recognise the new state.

Ankara tried to help its new neighbour by providing humanitarian help and much-needed wheat. But diplomatic relations were never properly established, with the process shuddering to a halt after Armenia’s move to annex Nagorno-Karabakh, a nominal Azerbaijani territory, in 1993.

Meanwhile, Armenian anger remained over the 1915 genocide and Turkey’s refusal to acknowledge the term or extent of the killings.

Yet after three decades, there is now a real chance that the parties will finally come to a resolution, open borders and trade diplomatic missions. Unexpectedly, Ankara and Yerevan decided to move forward following Azerbaijan’s seizure of large swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh last year, which it did with the substantial help of Turkey.

“We were quite surprised that the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won the elections in June with over 50 percent support after a war he lost to Azerbaijan,” a Turkish official told Middle East Eye, speaking on condition of anonymity. “His election encouraged us to talk to the Armenian government about a normalisation because he now has a strong mandate and his popularity indicates the Armenian people also want a change.”

Pashinyan has repeatedly acknowledged his interest in opening the border with Turkey and beginning a normalisation process. In the summer, Ankara attempted to make some gestures to the Armenians but was unable to succeed due to “some unexpected” developments, Turkish officials said.

After consultations with the Azerbaijani government in the autumn, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan began publicly calling for a three-plus-three platform that consists of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia, Georgia, Iran and Armenia for a complete regional reconciliation. Meanwhile, Ankara started direct outreach to Yerevan.

Resolution more than likely

This is not the first time that Turkey and Armenia have tried to resolve their issues, which go back to the 1915 massacres of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire.

Armenians and much of the international community refer to the killings, which left an estimated 1.5 million people dead, as a genocide. Turkey rejects the term and the death toll, arguing there were deaths on both sides.

Both countries were very close to reaching a reconciliation deal in 2009 that even included a section to establish a history commission to discuss whether the massacres amounted to a genocide. But Baku’s strong protest over the continued Armenian presence in Nagorno-Karabakh and its threat to stop crucial energy deals with Ankara prevented further progress.

Now that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has largely been resolved for Azerbaijan through its military conquest, the Turkish officials are confident that a resolution is more than likely.

Turkish officials say the biggest difference is that both sides aren’t trying to have a complete reconciliation deal as they did in 2009.

“This time we are only focussing on normalisation steps. And we plan to take it gradually, a step-by-step approach based on mutual trust and progress,” the Turkish official said. “The dispute on how to name the killing of the Armenian citizens in 1915 or other issues aren’t on our agenda.”

One of the points of contention between Turkey and Armenia has always been the latter’s claims on Turkish territory. Turkish officials believe the provisions on the Armenian declaration of independence and the constitution on a “Western Armenia” on Turkish lands are up to interpretation and pose no genuine threat.

“The return to a ‘normalisation’ process between Turkey and Armenia will begin with a more modest and practical set of objectives: establishing diplomatic relations and reopening the closed border,” says Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Centre, an independent think tank in Yerevan, Armenia.

“Moreover, normalisation represents a first step, and does not offer or seek reconciliation or rapprochement.”

Giragosian says both sides have already taken the first step by naming envoys and starting charter flights between the two countries, which they did earlier this month.

“And for sure, once the borders are open and the trade flows, it will be good for both people of the two countries, especially the border towns,” a second Turkish official said. “We believe Iran and Georgia will also benefit from this.”

Officials say there are more reasons to normalise relations with Armenia than not, and believe Russia – which has substantial commercial and political interests in Yerevan – won’t hinder the process.

“A return to diplomatic engagement between Turkey and Armenia offers a rare success in Turkish foreign policy and a positive development after months of political instability and economic crisis in Turkey,” Giragosian told MEE.

“Moreover, this return to normalisation with Armenia is also a component of a more ambitious Turkish effort of rapprochement with Israel, the UAE and others.”

Diaspora invervention

However, Turkish officials are concerned that the Armenian diaspora in the United States and France could undermine normalisation by conducting a public campaign in Armenia and using its political capital. It could do this, they fear, through ultra-nationalist parties like the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, which is historically known as Dashnaktsutyun.

“We told our western friends, including the Americans, to help us to prevent possible provocations by the diaspora,” the second official said.

Giragosian says the Armenian government is much more secure and self-confident, especially after its re-election in June.

“The diaspora is more marginal and much less of a factor or consideration for the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan,” he said. “Thus, although the diaspora is widely expected to oppose this process, its role as an effective spoiler or capacity to sabotage the process is much less than before.”

Turkish officials also mention that the reconciliation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues to be important to maintain the Turkish-Armenian talks.

“We cannot say that any possible armed clashes between both sides wouldn’t have an impact on our diplomatic talks,” the first Turkish official said. “However, our track is separate and has its own course.”

Azerbaijan wants Armenia to abide by a deal both parties signed last year under Russian mediation, which requires a land corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani exclave, through Armenian territory. Ankara also believes the corridor is commercially important for Turkey to open up the Central Asian and Turkic republics to the east.

“Although normalisation is a bilateral process between Turkey and Armenia, the most significant impediment comes from Azerbaijan,” said Giragosian.

“And there is little genuine confidence that Azerbaijan’s currently permissive position will last. And given the record over the past many months, the outlook for security and stability in this ‘region at risk’ remains uncertain and unpredictable at best.”

But one advantage the parties have this time is the experience from the 2009 talks. And Turkish officials are hopeful that, albeit slowly, this time they will succeed.

Ragip Soylu

Middle East Eye

Share6Tweet4SendShare

Get real time update about this post categories directly on your device, subscribe now.

Unsubscribe

Related Posts

d31eed6d18b07642f46f6718e0c69b0a
Opinion

“Caspian Interest”: Purpose of Russian FM’s visit to Azerbaijan

June 26, 2022
The-leaders-of-Armenia-and-Azerbaijan-meet-with-EU-President-Charles-Michel-in-Brussels-on-May-22.-president.az_
Opinion

EU mediates conflict in South Caucasus, long part of Russia’s geopolitical orbit

June 24, 2022
56-3
Opinion

Baku’s “East Caspian” strategy: The unseen side of Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Uzbekistan

June 22, 2022
Bildschirmfoto 2022-06-21 um 08.49.18
Opinion

Full throttle: Australia’s advantages alongside Azerbaijan

June 21, 2022
Armenian Opposition Rally
Opinion

The Fall of the Tent Empire – Where has the Armenian “revolution” gone?

June 20, 2022
21_162_image1
Opinion

Israel, Armenia and Presbyterians

June 18, 2022
77210d7f-507c-3931-9d21-d973689de7c3
Opinion

Sneaky and bellicose Armenians – In the wake of an attack in Paris

June 17, 2022
fe93b66b-64f0-307c-858e-1fe58273e720_850
Opinion

Baku between Davos and Munich: Our contribution to global security

June 17, 2022

New articles

Karabakh

President: Azerbaijanis to live in liberated lands forever – Azerbaijani president’s full speech

June 27, 2022
Opinion

“Caspian Interest”: Purpose of Russian FM’s visit to Azerbaijan

June 26, 2022
News

Azerbaijani president visits Goygol, Kalbajar, Lachin districts

June 26, 2022
Defense

Azerbaijan marks Armed Forces Day

June 26, 2022
Energy

DEWA, Azerbaijan discuss bilateral relations in energy sector, business opportunities

June 25, 2022
Opinion

EU mediates conflict in South Caucasus, long part of Russia’s geopolitical orbit

June 24, 2022
Covid-19

EU-funded Solidarity for Health Initiative presents its results

June 24, 2022
Economy

Black Sea Trade and Development Bank announces net profit of 43.9 million Euro for 2021

June 24, 2022
Gender

Women in diplomacy: a centuries-old practice in Azerbaijan

June 24, 2022
News

Russian FM: OSCE Minsk Group ceased operations

June 24, 2022
c24a7d34-02d2-45a2-95ad-980aa8264ad5
426082d1-a9e4-4ac5-95d4-4e84024eb314
ab65ed96-2f4a-4220-91ac-f70a6daaf659
96e40a2b-5fed-4332-83c6-60e4a89fd4d0
759bde00-a375-4fa1-bedc-f8e9580ceeca
aze-media-logo-ag

Aze.Media offers an independent and strategic insight on socio-cultural, political and economic life in Azerbaijan. We are thinkers of diverse disciplines spread across countries working together as one team to provide international audiences with an alternative point of view on Azerbaijani and foreign realities.

Email: editor@aze.media


© 2021 Aze Media International Platform for Alternative Thought.

No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Economy
  • Ecology
  • Energy
  • Opinion
  • Culture
  • Gender
  • Interview
  • Science
  • Logistics-Transport
  • History
  • Defense
  • Karabakh
  • Diaspora
  • Who we are

© 2021 Aze Media International Platform for Alternative Thought.