Technical issues at the Shah Deniz Alpha platform in the Caspian Sea, operated by BP, have led to a temporary reduction in Azerbaijan’s gas exports to Europe. On January 13, company representatives stated that active efforts are underway to resolve the issue, with plans to restore platform operations in the shortest time possible.
The primary cause of the shutdown at one of the four platforms of the Shah Deniz field was a leak in the subsea pipeline connecting the platform to the Sangachal Terminal. As a result, gas supplies to Bulgaria and Serbia were temporarily halted. On January 11, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced that he had been informed about the suspension of daily gas supplies amounting to 1.7 million cubic meters. However, the following day, he reported that deliveries would resume thanks to Azerbaijan’s gas reserves.
Bulgaria, which has relied exclusively on Azerbaijani gas since 2022, faced significant challenges. Under a long-term contract, the country receives 1 billion cubic meters of gas annually. The Azerbaijani side notified Bulgarian company Bulgargaz EAD about the temporary suspension of supplies on January 7, with deliveries expected to resume by January 15. Bulgargaz stated that it had purchased replacement gas volumes from Turkish company Botas to avoid a shortfall.
In Azerbaijan’s energy sector, officials have stated that supplies to Serbia could also resume by January 15 but cautioned that timelines may shift depending on the complexity of resolving the platform issue.
Gas deliveries to Europe were initially expected to normalize by January 11, but this did not occur. Moreover, as of January 13, further reductions in gas volumes transported via the TAP pipeline have been observed. Currently, TAP is only supplying gas to Italy. TAP AG, the operator of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, has confirmed the reduction in volumes.
In 2023, Azerbaijan exported approximately 11.8 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, meeting more than 7% of the continent’s demand. The primary recipients of Azerbaijani gas include nine countries, such as Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia. However, ENTSOG data indicate that since the start of January, daily gas volumes have decreased from 36.3 million cubic meters to 24.4 million cubic meters, a 29% drop.
The most significant reductions have been observed in Greece and Bulgaria, which stopped receiving gas through the IGB interconnector on January 9. Meanwhile, gas supplies to Italy remain partially stable, with additional volumes coming from Turkey. Experts suggest that this may be due to the resale of imported gas, including Russian gas.
A gas shortage in the region could become a serious problem only in the event of a sharp cold spell. However, given the capabilities of Turkish company Botas and Russian company Gazprom, replacement supplies can be ramped up to prevent a crisis.
