And this is not only about Erdoğan’s talks with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg about Sweden’s accession to the alliance.
Despite the lack of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Türkiye, Nikol Pashinyan not only sent his congratulations to Erdoğan, but also went to the inauguration ceremony in person. A photo of President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, smiling and talking about something, caught the expected attention of the media and social networks in the South Caucasus.
Frankly speaking, protocol handshakes and smiles are the outside part of many post-war settlement meetings. But this time it is all happening in Türkiye. And this is at least a reason to ask the question: why don’t Aliyev and Pashinyan negotiate in Türkiye?
There is, of course, a sensitive side to the issue. Yes, Türkiye and Azerbaijan have fraternal relations, which also affect the military sector. But if Russia, Armenia’s CSTO ally, which also has a bilateral agreement with Yerevan, the country that has a military base in Armenia and protects Armenian borders with Iran and Türkiye, acts as a mediator here, why cannot Türkiye play this role?
In this case, current political realities are far more important than historical stereotypes and grievances. In the early nineties one could sneer that “you cannot do serious politics with doners and concerts of Turkish pop stars”, but not now. Türkiye is already a de facto rwegional superpower. Its influence is growing and strengthening in many regions, not only in the traditional Middle East. Türkiye is active in Africa and the Balkans. And, of course, it is becoming one of the main geopolitical “players” in the former Soviet Union, including the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
Türkiye has truly fraternal relations with Azerbaijan. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara strategic partnership emerged on the basis of Azerbaijani oil and gas projects. It would not be wise for Armenia to ignore all these geopolitical shifts, and that is putting it mildly.
