Western special representatives frequently abandon their duties to immerse themselves in conflict zones. At times, they dive headfirst into hotspots, trying to persuade conflicting parties of their sincerity. The OSCE Minsk Group, which pretended to mediate the Karabakh conflict for nearly three decades, is a grim example of how unwise it is to entrust conflict resolution to Western institutions. They almost always act as agents of intrigue.
Although the Karabakh conflict is over, the West persists in its attempts to escalate tensions in the South Caucasus. Polish President Andrzej Duda’s visit to Armenia rekindles these efforts with its peculiarities, reflecting an unhealthy Western push into the region. If this visit focused solely on bilateral Polish-Armenian relations, it might be a different story. However, it is impossible to ignore the signs of a new EU interference strategy being crafted during this trip.
Was it mere coincidence that the Polish president suddenly found himself at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, participating in EU observation missions? Certainly not.
Reports indicate that Duda met with Polish nationals in the observer mission. Marek Kuberski, a Pole, serves as the deputy head of the EU mission in Armenia. However, it is unlikely that this connection alone drove Duda to the Azerbaijani border. His objectives seem more pressing.
Duda visited Yeraskh, a location where a metallurgical plant was under construction. Azerbaijan opposed this project from the outset, citing environmental concerns. Nevertheless, Yerevan deliberately proceeded, replicating a “ticking time bomb” scenario along its external border, reminiscent of the aging Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant.
Baku’s protests were widely heard, but this did not deter the Armenians from briefly partnering with the Americans and raising the U.S. flag at the construction site. Meanwhile, they tested the patience of Azerbaijani forces with intermittent gunfire. The Armenian propaganda machine then spread false claims of Azerbaijani aggression, but to no avail. Eventually, Baku succeeded in having the project relocated.
Poland’s president was undoubtedly aware of the sensitive nature of his visit. Had he adhered to political etiquette, he could have declined the trip to such a contentious area. Instead, by going, he inadvertently lent support to Yerevan’s provocative plans.
Formally, Andrzej Duda came to clarify Yerevan’s priorities in its pursuit of EU integration. Brussels is eager to get answers on key issues, particularly regarding Armenia’s ties with Russia. The West is closely monitoring Armenia’s commitments to the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and assessing its readiness to pivot away from Moscow. It seems Poland has now been tasked with overseeing this transition.
Warsaw is set to chair the EU Council in 2025 and is asserting its leadership in reshaping Eastern European dynamics. Conflict resolution is a major aspect of its agenda.
If Poland is so attentive to disputed territories, why doesn’t it focus on the Ukrainian issue, with which it has direct involvement? It is no secret that Warsaw plays a central role in tying Kyiv to the Western European bloc. Yet Poland’s motives include a mercantile ambition to redraw Ukraine’s borders.
Unlike Slovakia and Hungary, which approach the Ukrainian crisis with responsibility, Poland seeks to internationalize the problem. Western Ukraine has always been a zone of attraction for Warsaw due to historical ties. This is not just about political rituals.
Instead of de-escalating tensions, Warsaw exacerbates the situation, seeing opportunities to further its territorial ambitions. Such actions are dishonest, but for Poland, viewing western Ukraine as a “lost territory,” this also serves as a means to curry favor with Brussels and Washington.
Poland makes no secret of its ambitions, which are growing visibly and extending beyond the Visegrád Group. The EU nation is increasingly active in the post-Soviet space, giving special attention to the South Caucasus. Under President Lech Kaczyński, Warsaw acted decisively yet diplomatically, maintaining balance between Baku and Yerevan.
In the early 2000s, Brussels entrusted Poland with overseeing the Eastern Partnership region. However, much has changed since then. While Armenia continues to lose its sovereignty, Azerbaijan has emerged as a strong and influential state, shaping the Eurasian continent’s dynamics.
Perhaps this transformation troubles Warsaw, prompting it to hatch new ambitious plans for Eurasian mediation.
Warsaw’s current meddling in the Caucasus has little in common with the rational policies of Kaczyński’s era. He was cautious and discerning, and Azerbaijani-Polish relations flourished under his leadership. This cannot be said of the current state of affairs.
In politics, every detail matters. Delicate and measured actions by skilled politicians are invaluable. Unfortunately, Andrzej Duda’s policies have brought more setbacks than benefits. Warsaw’s actions in the South Caucasus appear chaotic, echoing the disruptive tactics of U.S. figures like James O’Brien and Yuri Kim, whose interventions have left little positive legacy.
Poland’s current political leadership is undermining its own interests in Azerbaijan, leading to a cooling of bilateral ties under Duda’s administration.
Duda’s visit to Armenia brought no tangible benefits to the region. On the contrary, it added unhealthy intrigue to the simmering Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute. Regrettably, the Polish president’s actions resemble those of a Western proxy agent, leaving a trail of disintegration in their wake.
Tofig Abbasov
